Anyone else seeing a bump in early delinquencies? On our 2023 Q3 unsecured vintage, 30+ DPD EPD rose from 1.8% to 2.6% month over month after a 25 bps APR increase in January, and I’m trying to parse signal vs seasonality — are you attributing similar moves to repricing, mix shift, or score drift?
And , I totally get your frustration. That spike from 1.8% to 2.6% is a bit alarming, especially after an APR increase. In my experience, mix shifts and seasonal factors have played a significant role in similar cases, but I find the interplay can be tricky to nail down. Have you found any particular cohorts that are more impacted than others?
But it’s tricky to parse those shifts, isn’t it — i noticed a similar rise in early delinquencies after we adjusted APRs last year. I think mix shifts can play a big role, especially in a tighter economy — customers might prioritize different lending products when budgets get tight.
That spike does feel like a surprise guest at a party you weren’t expecting! Maybe a deeper dive into client segmentation could help clarify if it’s the price change pulling more risky borrowers or just seasonal shifts. Have you had a chance to look into how your approval criteria might have shifted since the APR changes?
I’ve noticed similar trends, especially after price adjustments. It might be worth examining specific client segments to see how they responded — @henry4028 mentioned a shift in approval criteria, which could be impacting your metrics too. Have you looked into that yet?
I’ve seen waves in delinquencies too, and it’s often a mix of factors — like the APR hike you mentioned. One thing that helped us was closely analyzing customer behavior after our rate adjustments. It’s definitely worth checking if different segments reacted differently, as @henry4028 suggested.
It’s definitely interesting to see the shifts after pricing changes. From our experience, closely analyzing the underlying reasons for delinquency spikes — like understanding the customer journey — helped us adjust our approach effectively. Have you considered segmenting your delinquencies further to pinpoint specific areas of concern?